Market Intelligence

Maui Market Update 2020 | New Contract Volume

While sales tell the past and big closing numbers get all the headlines, it’s every individual new contract that truly forecasts the current and immediate future outlook. Without new contracts, there are no new sales – it is a very cause and effect relationship as a healthy transactional pool keeps the market moving.

Aerial view of South Maui Coast, Hawaii

With that said, I am pleased to share…

The Onderko Index (TOI)

Where we are now, compared to where we were then. TOI– Somewhat bold, fully self-proclaimed…yet valid. With that said, I would like to give some insight into current market conditions by diving into a statistic not generally available to the public, let’s call it — the New Contract Volume (NCV) statistic.

New Contract Volume | Sales Per Day

Normal Market Conditions: 1/01 -3/12/2020

1/1/2020 – 3/12/2020

Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
Maui 72 575 8.0 100%
West Maui 130 1.8 23%
South Maui 219 3.0 38%
UpCountry 67 0.9 12%
Central 94 1.3 16%
North Shore 36 0.5 6%
East 2 0.03 0%
Molokai 23 0.3 4%
Lanai 4 0.1 1%

The Explanation: Taking what began on 03/13/2020 called current market conditions and comparing this time to the then (01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020), known as normal market conditions. The goal was to come up with a new contract per day average figure and compare the current conditions with the recent and, for the most part, modern day normal.

Current Market Conditions: 3/13/2020 – Current

3/13/2020 – Current

Region # of Days # New Contracts New Contract/Day % + or – Norm % New Contracts
Maui 129 632 4.9 -39% 100%
West Maui 134 1.0 -42% 21%
South Maui 172 1.3 -56% 27%
UpCountry 74 0.6 -38% 12%
Central 176 1.4 5% 28%
North Shore 55 0.4 -15% 9%
East 3 0.0 -16% 0%
Molokai 12 0.1 -71% 2%
Lanai 6 0.0 -16% 1%

The Forecast: The higher the above the norm, the stronger prices will remain. The lower % or negative % from the normthe more prices will soften for properties that need to sell in the immediate and near future. The longer this lasts, the more impact we will see.

Who is Gaining/Losing?

Normal Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region

Current Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region

If you are in the market for buying or selling Maui real estate or have any questions about the area or the market in general, please feel free to contact me. I welcome the opportunity to give you information on my previous sales performance and marketing strategies. Or if you’re curious about what your property is worth in today’s market, it would be my pleasure to provide you with property information and a value assessment free of any sales pitch.

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