Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Market Analysis – December 2022

As 2022 comes to a close, I have long time clients returning for their annual visits and asking for my analysis of the current condo market at Waikoloa Beach Resort.

Anaehoʻomalu Bay seen from Lava Lava Beach Club

Anaehoʻomalu Bay, seen from a table at the recently reopened Lava Lava Beach Club at Waikoloa Beach Resort

In summary, with continued demand and very reduced supply, we do not have a collapse of the market, nor do I expect to see one in 2023.

  • The inventory (total number) of condos for sale situation remains at a historic low.
  • On the other hand, buyers are done with simply throwing money at anything in a feeding frenzy. So the rate of turnover/days on market has risen.
  • Sellers are a bit more flexible on price than a year ago, but not a whole lot more flexible. Prices are holding steady near to the record high mark.

Here are the numbers.

2022 Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Market Analysis – By the Numbers

For perspective, letʻs take a look at 2020. Prior to 2021 the Big Island resort condo market was highly seasonal, with most of the sales taking place in the first quarter (closings would then straggle into second quarter). Because the pandemic shutdown did not take place until near the end of our high season, our sales volume and prices for 2020 looked “normal” — meaning not too different from 2019. There were 63 sales. The longest it took one to sell was 562 days (somewhat misleading as some of these units went on and off the MLS for years before selling). The median sales price was only $528,000

Summary – Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Sales in 2020 
# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 63 $325,000 $2,600,000 $660,630 $549,000 $725,000
MLS Sale $ 63 $310,000 $2,575,000 $640,178 $528,000 N/A
DOM to sale 63 0 562 80 49 0
Sale/Current Price 63 89.9% 102.2% 97.1% 97.8% N/A
Sale/Original Price 63 81.2% 102.2% 95.9% 97.2% N/A
Price per Bldg SqFt 63 $309 $1,211 $495 $455 $473
The real estate frenzy of 2021 completely wiped out the aged inventory of condos for sale at Waikoloa Beach Resort, and tempted some owners who were not even contemplating a sale to take profits. This shows up in the numbers: 153 sales, and the average days on market is actually higher than the previous year as the aged inventory finally sold. The median price jumped 42% to $750,000.
Summary – Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Sales in 2021
# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 153 $365,000 $2,900,000 $879,242 $750,000 N/A
MLS Sale $ 153 $363,000 $2,800,000 $874,253 $750,000 N/A
DOM to sale 153 0 4,866 92 10 0
Sale/Current Price 153 89.1% 118.3% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
Sale/Original Price 153 56.3% 118.3% 99.5% 100.0% 100.0%
Price per Bldg SqFt 153 $389 $1,351 $606 $527 $527
By the time 2022 begins, we have little inventory, and most of it at the higher price points. But the market is still roaring. Here are the results for the first half of 2022. 58 sales in six months (almost as many as in the entire year of 2020), average of only 11 days on market, and a median price of $982.000 for a Waikoloa Beach Resort condo.
Summary – Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Sales in first half 2022
# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 58 $435,000 $3,895,000 $1,291,279 $982,000 $950,000
MLS Sale $ 58 $480,000 $3,795,000 $1,297,231 $999,444 N/A
DOM to sale 58 0 81 11 5 0
Sale/Current Price 58 91.7% 115.1% 101.1% 100.2% 100.0%
Sale/Original Price 58 91.7% 115.1% 101.3% 100.1% 100.0%
Price per Bldg SqFt 58 $503 $1,814 $889 $790 $786
With the inventory depleted, higher interest rates, and talk of recession on the horizon, the market cooled considerably in the second half of 2022. Here are the closed sales with only ten days to go in the year – and only 4 more Waikoloa Beach Resort condos in escrow. Less than half the number of sales, more than double the days on market, and a slight increase in the median price reflecting the available inventory. Even by historical standards, the number of sales is low. But the prices are at historic highs.
Summary – Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Sales in second half 2022
# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 24 $795,000 $2,249,000 $1,212,762 $1,070,000 $995,000
MLS Sale $ 24 $795,000 $2,249,100 $1,189,962 $1,037,500 N/A
DOM to sale 24 0 139 27 14 2
Sale/Current Price 24 91.7% 109.4% 98.3% 99.2% 100.0%
Sale/Original Price 24 75.5% 109.4% 96.3% 97.1% 100.0%
Price per Bldg SqFt 24 $605 $1,708 $899 $808 N/A

Forecast for 2023 for the Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Market

Hawaii Business Magazine talked to several economists, who predict a slowing overall in the Hawaiʻi real estate market in 2023, followed by recovery in 2024. But all real estate is local. I am forecasting that our Kohala Coast resort condo markets, including Waikoloa Beach Resort, will have a dramatic decrease in the number of sales. Mainly that will be because there are few condos for sale; every real estate broker I know is desperate for new listings. The lack of inventory is so dramatic it will affect our resort condo market for years to come, providing support for current price levels.

Interest rates may have some offsetting effect, but even in the second half of 2022, more than half the Waikoloa Beach resort sales were financed by savvy buyers who are being told “marry the property, date the rate.” They can handle the current mortgage payment, and might refinance if and when rates drop again.

Kolea condo ocean view

Kolea is a beachfront community with single-family homes along the front row, and condos looking over them at the ocean view.

There are only 13 active condo listings at Waikoloa Beach Resort. But note: five of these listings are at Kolea, the highest price condo complex in Waikoloa Beach Resort, with asking prices from $1,750,000 for a 2 bed/2 bath condo, to $3,899,000 for a 3 bed/3.5 bath penthouse. The remaining eight listings are distributed across five condo communities, with most having a single condo for sale. Oceanfront Halii Kai at Waikoloa Beach Resort currently has zero active listings.

Summary – Waikoloa Beach Resort Condo Active Listings – December 2022
# Lowest Highest Average Median Mode
Listings 13 $850,000 $3,899,000 $1,577,385 $995,000 $899,000
DOM (Active/Contingent) 13 0 200 75 56 N/A
Price per Bldg SqFt 13 $622 $1,816 $1,057 $902 N/A

Typically successful buyers in the current market have been staying at, and even looking at, Waikoloa Beach Resort condos for years. They know which condo complexes are of interest, and are prepared to make offers sight unseen if something perfect comes on the market. They recognize that with low inventory, low ball offers will not fly with sellers (unless the seller is completely unrealistic in pricing – we still have a few of those).

And sellers — all the basics still matter. Staging, professional photos, and marketing through all the online channels. Those are still the keys to getting the highest price in the fewest days on market for your Kohala Coast resort condo.

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