Yes! Puamana is on a record sales pace, and while we are only at the mid-point of 2014, compared to the last 5-10 year period…Puamana is burning bright like the Lahaina sky on the 4th of July. Since 2004, annual sales volume has not exceeded 10 total units but 3 other times and going back 15 years, Puamana has only seen this many transactions in the first half of the year 2 other times: 14 years ago, in 2000, when there were 11 properties sold by 6/30 (23 total), and 2002 had 13 (22 total).
And I know what you’re thinking, another boring real estate report…? Please stay with me, this is an easy one…lots of pretty graphs that tell the story probably better than the words do.
So here we go:
As we enter the second half of the year, Puamana has had 10 units sold prior to June 30, 2014 (actually prior to May 31). This is significant by comparison, just take a look! In all of 2013, 10 units sold, 10 also sold in all of 2012, and 13 total in 2011. 2010 saw only 4 sell, and even worse, 3 in all of 2009. Again, 10 so far this year. That’s huge!
Where are We Now in Regards to Price or Value?
As of 7/10/2014, 5 properties are currently listed on the active MLS market with none pending or in escrow. So if we are on record sales volume price, where are we now in regards to price or value?
Let’s take a closer look:
The graph above illustrates sales volume broken down by bedrooms. Sales this year include:
- (1) 1-bedroom unit (11.11% of 2014 volume)
- (5) 2-bedroom units (55.55%)
- (3) 3-bedroom units (33.33%)
Over the past 15 years, 1-bedroom sales have made up 35.20% of all sales volume, 2-bedrooms 43.58%, and 3+ bedrooms comprising 21.23%.
The chart above shows Puamana “sellers” enjoying a strong listing price position with units selling at an average of 94% of asking price over the past 15 years. 2014 is averaging 93% so far, while the last 5 year span (2009-2013) was at 91% of list, 2004-2008 saw 96% of list and (1999-2003) sold at 95% of list.
In comparing average sold price for 2014 ($1,024,000) versus the last 5 year 2009-2013 average, 2014 is UP 10% or $93,374 per unit. Compared to the 2004-2008 span, this year is DOWN 9.37% or -$105,843 per unit but is UP a whopping 87% or $476,318 per unit versus the 1999-2003 years.
In comparing average sales price over a 5 year span: The 5 year span (2009-2013) was DOWN 17.72% or $200,217 per unit versus 2004-2008, BUT yet UP on 1999-2003 by 69.74% or $381,944 per unit.
Based on the numbers, history shows that the 2-bedroom has had the least sales volatility with less dramatic peaks and valleys compared to the 1 and 3-bedroom units. Additionally, the 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units were averaging near or at the same sales price for many years.
Okay, now this one may look a little crazy, but trust me when I say the total avg price/sq.ft. in the graph above (which is relative to average sales price) follows a very similar path as the total average list price/sold price graph with a sharp increase in price between 2000-2005, with a steadying out, then one more bump in 2008 before the free fall between 2008-2010 and the leveling out between 2010-2013. For 2014, indicators show an increase in average sold price and price per square foot compared to the previous 5 year period.
The breakdown by bedroom is the crazy part of this graph. And the reason is because we must take into account the extreme differences in some direct oceanfront units as well as highly remodeled or completely rebuilt units that make the extreme “high points” of the graph. We also must account for lesser valued units making up the “low points” which are located on the back line of the property near the highway, or completely original units that, after nearly 50 years, need a facelift.
What About Days on Market?
The term “Days on Market” describes the amount of time a property has been on the active MLS market from listing date, until closing date where recordation takes place and the new owner gets possession of the property. Generally, when the market is hot (high sales volume) and properties are undervalued, Days on Market tend to be lower. Conversely, when the market is slower (low sales volume) or when prices are higher than buyers see value, less units move and Days on Market tend to be higher.
An example of this would be in 2010, when the Puamana real estate market had only 4 units sold all year: Days on Market were at the highest in 15 years at 430 days (compared to 246 days for this year, 219 last year, and under 200 for the most of 2000-2008). Also, if you flip the Sales Volume graph upside down, you’ll see that they fit similarly into the peaks and valleys of the Days on Market graph.
Puamana Lahaina, Maui…there is no other place like it!
Will the sales pace continue? See you for the annual report in 6 months.