Each month, we bring you insights from one of the best in the business — Zack Diener of Barrett Financial Group, LLC — to help you stay informed and make confident, well-timed decisions in today’s ever-changing mortgage and real estate landscape.
A Welcome Shift in the Rate Landscape
Since our last update, we’ve seen some encouraging movement in mortgage rates that deserves attention. After a four-day decline last week, 30-year mortgage rates have leveled off, keeping the average near an early April low. This represents a meaningful shift from the volatility we’ve been experiencing throughout the first half of 2025.
What’s Happening with Rates Right Now
The most notable development is that mortgage rates are nearing a 3-month low, which is the best news we’ve had in quite some time. While rates had been fluctuating in that 6.5% to 7% range we discussed previously, we’re now seeing them settle closer to the lower end of that spectrum.
Rates moved ever so slightly down again in the most recent trading sessions, suggesting that the downward pressure we’ve been hoping for may finally be materializing. This comes after what mortgage industry observers noted was a period of extreme volatility earlier in the year.
Today’s Jobs Report: A Mixed but Encouraging Signal
The June jobs report released this morning showed the economy added 147,000 jobs, which was stronger than the expected 117,500. Even better news for the mortgage market: the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, contrary to expectations that it would rise to 4.3%.
This is particularly significant because it shows the labor market remains resilient without being too hot – exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see. The jobs growth was solid enough to demonstrate economic stability, but not so strong as to reignite inflation concerns that would push rates higher.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters
This recent rate improvement is significant because it breaks a pattern of persistent elevation that has characterized much of 2025. Bond traders have been buying the dip after morning economic data, indicating that institutional investors are becoming more optimistic about the direction of interest rates.
The jobs report reinforces this trend – markets are now pricing in just a 5% chance of a July rate cut from the Fed, down from 24% a day prior, but that’s actually good news for mortgage rates. It suggests the Fed won’t need to raise rates to combat inflation, allowing the current downward pressure on mortgage rates to continue.
For Hawaii borrowers, this translates to real opportunities. Local banks and credit unions are reflecting these improved national trends, and as a local mortgage brokerage with longstanding partnerships with local and mainland institutions alike, we are positioned to find the best deals being offered at any given moment.
What This Means for Your Home Purchase
The Bottom Line: This recent rate improvement, while modest, represents the most favorable conditions we’ve seen in months. If you’ve been on the fence about purchasing or refinancing, this may be the window you’ve been waiting for.
The Strategy: While we can’t predict if rates will continue to improve or if this is just a temporary dip, the current environment favors action over waiting. The difference between today’s rates and where they were just a few weeks ago could save you meaningful money over the life of your loan.
Local Advantage: Here in Hawaii, we’re seeing these rate improvements reflected across our lending partners, giving us multiple options to find you the most competitive terms available.
What to Watch For
Looking ahead, the next key date for mortgage rates will be July 15th, when the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released. This will be crucial because it will show whether the inflation trends that have been encouraging the Fed continue to move in the right direction.
Given that we’ve seen inflation moderate in recent months – with the May CPI showing just a 0.1% monthly increase – another favorable reading could provide additional downward pressure on rates. The market will be watching closely to see if inflation continues its path toward the Fed’s 2% target.
The mortgage market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement – conditions that haven’t been this favorable in months. For qualified buyers, this may be the opportunity to act while rates are in this more favorable range.
Mortgage insights provided by Zack Diener, Barrett Financial Group
Zack Diener
Mortgage Loan Originator | NMLS 470413
Based in Fort Collins, CO
Serving Hawaii and Colorado
(808) 349-3777 phone
(800) 385-3630 fax
ZDiener@barrettfinancial.com
Barrett Financial Group, LLC | Corp NMLS #181106
275 E Rivulon Blvd, Suite 200, Gilbert, AZ 85297
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