Navigating a Shifting Landscape With Hints of Market Trends to Come
Hawai‘i’s real estate market is experiencing a complex interplay of trends across its islands. In Kaua‘i, the number of available homes has stabilized at a new normal level, with a slight increase in inventory and longer time on the market since August 2022. On Maui, the housing market was affected by events on August 8th, leading to varied Q3 results. On Hawai‘i Island, available homes are increasing, while sales rates remain similar to a decade ago. On O‘ahu, despite a slower start in 2023, home sales are showing possible signs of advancing. The future of the housing market depends on increased homes for sale and how rising interest rates affect people looking to buy.
Outlook on Hawai‘i Island’s Residential Real Estate Market Remains Strong
There was a slight dip with home inventory in Q1 2023 with 570 available homes, increasing to 575 in Q2 2023, and rose again to 606 in Q3 2023. Homes have been staying on the market longer since August 2022, and while the total number of sales has decreased since the pandemic’s peak, the rate of decrease is slowing, with sales only 3.5% less than in Q3 2013. The average price per square foot was 3.5% greater than a year ago, $527/sq ft in Q3 2023 compared to $509/sq ft in Q3 2022. High demand and limited supply continue to stabilize home prices.
Encouraging Signs with a Small Increase in Listing Inventory on O‘ahu
While O‘ahu’s residential inventory decreased year over year by -2.63%, quarter over quarter it was up 1.3% from 629 to 637 active listings. Homes under contract were at 747 in Q3 2023, which seems to support that sales will remain at their current level. O‘ahu is seeing a slight rise in median price from Q1 2023. The median sales price in Q1 was $1,020m, $1,030m in Q2 and in Q3 it was up to $1.05m. Increase in property value was as high as 76%, despite the decrease in number of homes sold since the summer of 2022.
Impacts of Fires Likely to Cause Continued Volatility in Maui’s Housing Market
Maui’s residential inventory decreased by -12.1% from 240 in Q3 2022 to 211 listings in Q3 2023, with the availability of single-family homes contracting. Inventory had been declining since a high in Q4 2022, however the quarter over quarter reduction between Q2 and Q3 was greater than expected. Events on August 8th affected many areas and lives on Maui, including its housing market. The impacts of the fires will likely lead to continued volatility in Maui’s housing market in the near term – and potentially outsized demand and low supply for years to come.
Number of Available Homes on Kaua‘i Appear to Be Stabilizing
Kaua‘i’s residential inventory in Q3 2023 rose to 130 active listings, an increase of +7.4% from Q3 2022 which was at 121. The third quarter set an all time high for the median sold price of single family homes on Kaua‘i, +27.5% from the median sold price Q3 2022. While inventory is slowly increasing, prices have yet to significantly decrease. Kaua‘i sales, however, declined by -44.7% to 52 from 94 in Q3 2022. The quarter over quarter numbers show a reduction in days on market from 103 DOM in Q2 2023 to 80 in Q3 2023.
If you’re feeling a bit lost in the sea of numbers, no worries! Hawai‘i Life’s agents possess the insight, knowledge, and know-how to help you navigate the variables of a shifting market. Need insider details on specific areas across the islands? We’ll connect you with a local expert to meet your individual needs. Don’t hesitate to reach out at any time – we’re here to help.
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