Molokai Market Snapshot – Q-3 September 2025

Q3 Market Trends and Takeaways

The third quarter of 2025 closed out with conditions continuing to favor buyers across all three major property segments on Molokai: single-family homes, condominiums, and vacant land. Elevated inventory levels, slower absorption rates, and shifting pricing trends have kept negotiations leaning in buyers’ favor. Still, Q-3 also brought signs of nuanced market activity, including notable pricing swings, stronger buyer selectivity, and a few indicators of price stabilization in certain categories.

Below is a breakdown of how each sector performed through the end of September 2025.

Single-Family Homes

Key Metrics – September 2025

• Inventory: 21 homes for sale, up 31.3% from last year but down 4.5% month-over-month.
• Sales: 3 closings, up 50% from last month and year-over-year.
• Pending Sales: 0, down from 2 last month and 3 last year.
• Months of Inventory: 7 months, down from 11 in August and down 12.5% from last year (buyer’s market).
• Average Days on Market: 113, down 30.7% from last year but up 63.8% from last month.
• Average Sold Price: $1,098,000, up 180.1% month-over-month and 59.1% year-over-year.
• Median Sold Price: $415,000, up 5.9% from August but down 39.9% from last year.
• Average Price per Sq. Ft.: $786, up 82.8% from August and 44.2% from last year

What This Means

The single-family home market remains solidly in buyer’s territory, with inventory levels high enough to provide plenty of choice. Although overall sales volume remains relatively low, pricing trends tell a more complex story. The sharp rise in average sold price, driven by a small number of higher-end transactions, suggests that demand for premium properties remains intact. However, the flat median price points to broader price sensitivity, and the lack of pending sales heading into Q4 is a signal that buyers are taking their time. Sellers should focus on realistic pricing and property presentation to attract offers in this environment.

Condominiums

Key Metrics – September 2025

• Inventory: 41 condos for sale, down 8.9% from August and 2.4% from last year.
• Sales: 1 closing, down 66.7% month-over-month and 75% year-over-year.
• Pending Sales: 4, up 100% from August and last year.
• Months of Inventory: 41 months, up 173.3% from August and 290.5% from last year (buyer’s market).
• Average Days on Market: 31, down 24.4% from August and 76% from last year.
• Average Sold Price: $127,000, down 2.3% from August and 66.3% year-over-year.
• Median Sold Price: $128,000, up 16.4% month-over-month but down 65.3% year-over-year.
• Average Price per Sq. Ft.: $210, down 0.5% from August and 58% from last year

What This Means

The condominium market saw a significant slowdown in Q3, with just one closed sale in September and months of inventory skyrocketing to over 41. The steep decline in average and median prices reflects both limited sales activity and a shift in the type of properties trading hands. Despite this, the rise in pending sales could signal improved momentum heading into Q4. Complexes affected by potential regulatory changes (such as Maui County’s pending Bill 9 on short-term rentals) continue to experience limited buyer activity. Opportunities exist here, but buyers are highly selective, and sellers should price aggressively to compete.

Vacant Land

Key Metrics – September 2025

• Inventory: 38 lots for sale, down 9.5% from August and 22.4% from last year.
• Sales: 1 closing, unchanged from last month and last year.
• Pending Sales: 2, up 100% from August.
• Months of Inventory: 38 months, down 9.5% from August and 22.4% from last year (buyer’s market).
• Average Days on Market: 466, down 1.9% year-over-year.
• Average Sold Price: $118,000, up 96.7% month-over-month and 68.6% year-over-year.
• Median Sold Price: $119,000, up 98.3% from August and 70% from last year

What This Means

The land market remains the slowest-moving segment on Molokai, with months of inventory still extremely high and days on market stretching well beyond a year. However, prices for the limited number of closed sales have rebounded significantly, a sign that buyers are willing to pay for the right parcel. Lower inventory compared to 2024 could also set the stage for a more balanced market in 2026, particularly if demand continues to rise for agricultural and residential land amid long-term housing pressures.

Q3 Market Takeaway

Across the board, Molokai real estate remains a buyer’s market as 2025 heads into its final quarter. Elevated inventory levels and extended days on market are giving buyers leverage, while sellers must focus on competitive pricing and property condition to stand out. Still, several encouraging signs, including stronger pending activity in the condo and land segments and rising average sale prices for single-family homes, point to a potential shift toward more balanced conditions next year.

For buyers, this environment continues to offer negotiating power and a wide range of choices. For sellers, success depends on realistic expectations, strategic pricing, and understanding the nuances of buyer demand in each segment.

Quick Thoughts

• Buyers still hold the advantage. All three market segments remain firmly in buyer’s market territory heading into Q4, with high inventory levels and extended days on market.
• Home prices show two stories. Average single-family prices surged on the strength of a few high-end sales, while the median price, a better indicator of the broader market, remains significantly lower than last year.
• Condo activity slowed but may be turning a corner. Sales volume dropped sharply, but pending contracts doubled, suggesting renewed buyer interest as we enter the final stretch of the year.
• Land market is sluggish but showing signs of life. Inventory is down year-over-year, and closed-sale prices nearly doubled month-over-month, indicating selective but growing demand for the right parcels.
• 2026 could see more balanced conditions. Rising pending activity, tightening supply in some categories, and strong buyer selectivity could lead to a market shift next year.

Let’s Connect

Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply curious about what these market shifts mean for you, it’s worth having a conversation now, before Q4 trends start shaping 2026 opportunities. If you’d like a deeper dive into property values, neighborhood-specific data, or custom advice tailored to your goals, feel free to reach out anytime.

Aloha,

Rob Stephenson
Hawai‘i Life Real Estate Advisor
808-658-0608 | RobStephenson@hawaiilife.com