Molokai Market Snapshot – January 2026

We’re now well into 2026, and the data from the first full month of the year is beginning to tell a story we haven’t consistently seen across all segments at the same time in a while.

January 2026 closed out as a buyer’s market across single-family homes, condos, and vacant land. That doesn’t mean properties aren’t selling. They are. But it does mean buyers currently have leverage, more time, and more options. Sellers need to be realistic, strategic, and properly priced to meet the market where it is.

Let’s break it down.

Single-Family Homes

January 2026 was a Buyer’s Market based on closed sales and inventory levels

Inventory & Activity

• 26 homes for sale, up 8.3% from last month and up 30% year over year
• 3 homes sold, up 200% from last month and up 50% year over year
• 2 homes pended, down 33.3% month over month and down 33.3% year over year
• 8.7 months of inventory, clearly in buyer’s market territory

So yes, sales ticked up from December, but inventory is still elevated enough to give buyers breathing room.

Pricing

• Average sold price: $370,000, down 18.7% from last month and down 27.9% year over year
• Median sold price: $330,000, down 27.5% from last month and down 35.7% year over year
• Average price per square foot: $347, down 30.5% from last month and down 38.3% year over year

The price per square foot metric is important here because it normalizes the data. That number trending down tells us values are not accelerating at the moment.

Days on Market & Negotiation

• Average days on market: 42 days, down 50% from last year
• Sold-to-list ratio: 95%, down from both last month and last year

Homes are still moving, but sellers are negotiating. The days of throwing a price out and waiting for multiple offers are not the norm right now.

What This Means

If you’re a seller, pricing correctly from day one matters more than ever. The market is not rewarding “let’s try high and see what happens.”

If you’re a buyer, you have options. And negotiating room.

Condominiums

Condos also landed in buyer’s market territory in January.

Inventory & Activity

• 39 condos for sale, up 5.4% from last month but down 23.5% year over year
• 3 condos sold, up 50% year over year
• 4 condos pended, up 100% month over month and year over year
• 13 months of inventory, clearly a buyer’s market

That jump in pendings is interesting. It suggests buyers are active, but they’re selective.

Pricing

• Average sold price: $583,000, up significantly from last month and up 93.7% year over year
• Median sold price: $300,000, essentially flat year over year
• Average price per square foot: $552, up sharply month over month and modestly year over year

With only three sales, one higher-priced closing can swing the averages in a big way. That’s the nature of a small market like Molokai.

What This Means

Condos remain sensitive to broader Maui County policy discussions and market sentiment. Inventory levels show buyers still hold leverage, even though pricing metrics jumped this month.

In short, activity is there. But it is not a feeding frenzy.

Vacant Land

Land continues to be the slowest-moving segment and the most sensitive to overall buyer confidence.

January also showed up as a buyer’s market for land.

Inventory & Activity

• 39 lots for sale, down slightly from last month and down 7.1% year over year
• 1 lot sold, down 66.7% year over year
• 1 lot pended, flat year over year
• 39 months of inventory, up 178.6% year over year

Thirty-nine months of inventory is significant. That’s more than three years of supply at the current sales pace.

Pricing

• Average sold price: $80,000, down 42.9% from last month and down 89% year over year
• Median sold price: $80,000, also down sharply year over year

Small sample sizes exaggerate swings, but the broader story is clear. Land buyers remain cautious.

What This Means

If you’re selling land, you must be realistic. The buyer pool is thinner, and financing and construction costs still weigh heavily on decisions.

For buyers, this is the segment with the most leverage right now.

Overall Takeaway – January 2026

All three segments ended January in buyer’s market territory.

That does not mean Molokai values are collapsing. It means:

• Inventory is elevated relative to sales pace
• Buyers are selective
• Negotiation is part of the process again
• Strategy and pricing to meet the market matters more than ever

Molokai is a small, relationship-driven market. One or two sales can move percentages dramatically. That’s why context matters more than headlines.

If you’re considering selling, the conversation about pricing and preparation is important right now.

If you’re considering buying, this is the type of market where patience and negotiation can work in your favor.

Let’s Connect

Whether you are considering buying, selling, or simply trying to understand how these trends apply to a specific property or neighborhood, I am always happy to talk story and help put the data into context. On Molokai, the numbers matter most when they are paired with local insight.

Aloha,
Rob Stephenson
Hawai‘i Life Real Estate Advisor
Molokai