Hawaii Mortgage Market Update – November 2025

Each month, we bring you insights from one of the best in the business — Zack Diener of Barrett Financial Group, LLC — to help you stay informed and make confident, well-timed decisions in today’s ever-changing mortgage landscape.

From Record Lows to Reality Check: The Past 30 Days

The past month has been a tale of two very different market environments. October ended with mortgage rates hitting some of the best levels we’d seen in over three years, only to watch those gains evaporate in early November as rates climbed back toward 2-month highs. Today, rates sit at 6.36% for conventional 30-year fixed loans – not terrible by recent standards, but a disappointing retreat from the opportunities we saw just weeks ago.

October’s Golden Window

Let’s start with the good news. Throughout most of October, mortgage rates were hanging out near 3-year lows with minimal volatility. On October 28th, rates officially matched the lowest levels seen on September 16th, with some lenders offering rates in the low 6.1% range – levels we hadn’t experienced since late 2022.

The refinance market responded enthusiastically to these improved rates. Applications jumped 9% in late October and were up an impressive 111% compared to the same week last year. While that sounds dramatic, it’s worth noting we’re just now reaching refi volumes that were historically considered “very slow” – a reminder of how dramatically the market has changed since the ultra-low rate era.

November’s Reality: A Narrow Trading Range

Since the late October Fed meeting, rates rose somewhat sharply and have been trapped in a relatively narrow range throughout November. The range has been so tight that we’ve bounced between the bottom and top of it within single trading days. Currently, rates sit right at the upper boundary of this narrow range that stretches back to early September.

What’s driving the stagnation? A lack of meaningful economic data. Due to the recent government shutdown, we’ve been operating in a data vacuum – the last jobs report we received was on September 5th. Markets hate uncertainty, and without regular economic reports to digest, rates have been stuck in neutral.

The Data Drought Ends: Today’s Jobs Report

The economic data finally returned this morning with the long-delayed September jobs report. After seven weeks of waiting, the results came in better than the severely depressed expectations – 119,000 jobs added versus the 50,000 forecast. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.

The report painted a mixed picture. On one hand, job creation was more than double what economists expected. On the other hand, August’s numbers were revised sharply downward – showing the economy actually lost 4,000 jobs instead of gaining the previously reported 22,000. The labor force expanded by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million, suggesting more Americans are coming off the sidelines to look for work.

Markets had a measured reaction to the mixed data. The job count beating expectations was offset by the uptick in unemployment and the negative August revision. Bond markets initially showed strength but the response was fairly balanced – neither dramatically positive nor negative for mortgage rates. The 30 minutes of trading volume following the release was the highest since the October 29th Fed announcement, reflecting how desperately markets had been waiting for fresh employment data.

The takeaway: Labor market cooling continues, but at a pace that’s neither alarming nor robust enough to guarantee aggressive Fed rate cuts. This was the last full employment report Fed policymakers will see before their December 9-10 meeting, where they’ll decide whether to cut rates for the third time this year.

Inflation: Still the Stubborn Adversary

The October CPI report came in with mixed signals. The headline numbers were better than expected – core monthly inflation at 0.227% versus a forecast of 0.3%, and annual inflation at 3.0% versus an expected 3.1%. Bond markets initially rallied on the news, implying lower mortgage rates.

However, the celebration was short-lived. When you strip out tariff impacts and housing costs to examine “supercore” inflation (which measures underlying price pressures), the reading came in at 0.351% monthly versus 0.330% the prior month. While that’s better than July’s alarming 0.479% reading, it’s still too high for the Fed to be aggressive about rate cuts.

The best way to view how rates responded to the inflation data is this: rates would have been noticeably higher if the CPI hadn’t come in better than expected. So while we didn’t get a dramatic improvement, we avoided a setback.

Local Hawaii Market Update

The Hawaii market continues to show positive momentum despite the rate environment. Statewide sales activity was up in October, with home sales increasing 12% and condo sales rising 3% from last year. However, market times have extended significantly – home days on market are up 83% to 42 days, and condo days on market are up 41% to 55 days compared to last year.

This represents a meaningful shift toward a more balanced market. Homes are taking longer to sell, giving buyers more time to make decisions and negotiate. The frenzied pace of recent years has cooled considerably.

Looking ahead, economists expect Hawaii’s market to remain stable. While inventory has ticked up from record lows, supply still falls short of long-term demand, particularly in desirable neighborhoods. Interest rate improvements – even modest ones like we saw in October – continue to bring fence-sitters back into the market.

Here in Hawaii, our local banks and Hawaii-based credit unions continue to reflect national rate trends. The expertise our local lenders bring to island real estate transactions – understanding leasehold properties, rural financing, and Hawaii-specific nuances – becomes especially valuable as rates fluctuate.

As a local mortgage brokerage with longstanding partnerships with both local and mainland institutions, we’re positioned to help clients navigate this volatile environment and secure competitive par rates when opportunities present themselves.

What This Means for Borrowers

The Opportunity (and Missed Opportunity): Late October represented one of the best rate windows of the past three years. If you locked in rates during that period, congratulations – you caught an exceptional moment. If you didn’t, current rates around 6.36% are still significantly better than the 7%+ levels we experienced earlier this year.

The Volatility Factor: The past 30 days perfectly illustrate why timing the market is so difficult. We went from 3-year lows to 2-month highs in a matter of weeks. Waiting for the “perfect” rate has proven to be a risky strategy, as external factors can quickly reverse improvements.

What’s Next: With economic data finally returning, expect increased volatility. The delayed jobs report this Thursday could move markets significantly in either direction. After weeks of stagnation, rates finally have catalysts that could break them out of their current range.

The Strategy: If you’re actively shopping, understand that we’re in a period of increased uncertainty. The data drought is ending, which means rates will become more reactive to economic news. Lock rates when they’re favorable rather than gambling on further improvements that may not materialize.

The mortgage market has taught us once again that windows of opportunity can be fleeting. October’s exceptional rates may return, but there’s no guarantee. Current rates, while not as exciting as a month ago, still represent a reasonable financing environment for qualified buyers – especially compared to where we’ve been for most of the past two years.

Mortgage insights provided by Zack Diener, Barrett Financial Group

Zack Diener
Mortgage Loan Originator | NMLS 470413
Based in Fort Collins, CO
Serving Colorado and Hawaii
(808) 349-3777 phone
(800) 385-3630 fax 

ZDiener@barrettfinancial.com
Barrett Financial Group, LLC | Corp NMLS #181106
275 E Rivulon Blvd, Suite 200, Gilbert, AZ 85297