The map above shows the decrease in Average Sold Prices for the 1st Quarter of ’08 vs. the 1st Quarter of ‘09
The map above shows the current conditions of Average and Median For Sale Prices and Sold Prices for neighborhoods on Oahu along with their individual ACS %’s. The ACS % is the % of all inventory for sale that is in Escrow with a Just Accepted Offer.
As we can see from the above map the best neighborhoods with the highest % of inventory going into Escrow are Keolu Hills, Maunawili, Kalaheo Hillside and Enchanted Lake. It is only Maunawili where the Average For Sale Price is over $1,000,000.
The biggest drop so far has occurred in the second half of ’08. Whether or not we will see a rising trend as it depicts above after the first half of ’09, I doubt it. But my guess is that we will see a drop in the second half of this year, but not anywhere near as severe as it was in the second half of ’08.
We can see a lessening of the decline here in the 2nd. Quarter. I believe we will continue to see this trend throughout the balance of the year.
Here we are not experiencing the same trend as we have seen in the last two graphs. I believe that one of the reasons for this is that Kailua is not your average neighborhood on the Island with over 54% of the inventory for sale being over $1,000,000 and only 10% of the most popular selling price range of $700,000 to $799,999 available. There simply is not enough inventory in the most popular price range to sell leaving most buyers with no options, which means less sales.
Another graph going against a lessening trend of course has to be the Days On Market which have increased significantly.
New Listings have fallen as a general trend across the Island and Kailua is no different. It is this trend that is contributing to the declining inventory which eventually leads to a healthier market. Please note however that the decline in New Listings for Kailua is not that much. So the question is how much longer will it take for Kailua’s inventory to decline enough to become healthier? The same can be asked for ‘like’ neighborhoods such as Hawaii Kai.
Keep in mind that the Average For Sale Price at $2,167,928 and the Median For Sale Price at $1,190,000. This means that agents are working really hard to find listings in this price range but right now only 10% of the inventory available in Kailua is in this price range.
Inventory in Kailua is my concern. As you can see the inventory for sale really ramped up in ’08 and it is only 10% less than June ’08 right now. It is great to have a decrease but for a healthier Kailua market I believe we need much less inventory for sale.
Well…things are not getting any cheaper in Kailua it would seem.
For Sale Pie Chart 1st Quarter ‘09
For Sale Price Chart 2nd Quarter ‘09
In Escrow Pie Chart 1st. Quarter ‘09
In Escrow Pie Chart 2nd Quarter ‘09
Sold 1st. Quarter ‘09
Sold 2nd Quarter ‘09
PLEASE NOTE: Go back up to the what is going into escrow end of June ’09 and you will see it is the $600,000 to $699,999 price point. Now look at what sold at the end of the 2nd Quarter: $700,000 to $799,999.
The NEW popular Sold Price Point when the homes in escrow close: $600,000 to $699,999
I hope you have enjoyed this report. If you have any questions please feel free to contact me.
I must emphasize that the only thing selling in Kailua these days is not $700,000 to $799,999. There are plenty of homes in Kailua selling over the $1,000,000. In fact between April 1st and June 30th there were all of 7 Sold. That is my attempt at a little humor here.
I wish you all much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher, Broker in Charge, RE/MAX Honolulu
Ethics Complaints Review Committee Member
808-384-9015
mikeg@hawaii.rr.com
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