The map above shows the decrease in Average Sold Prices for the 1st Quarter of ’08 vs. the 1st Quarter of ‘09
The map above shows the current conditions of Average and Median For Sale Prices and Sold Prices for neighborhoods on Oahu along with their individual ACS %’s. The ACS % is the % of all inventory for sale that is in Escrow with a Just Accepted Offer.
The ACS % is good at 27% which means that 27% of the inventory is in escrow with a Just Accepted Offer. The Oahu ACS is 21% which makes Kailua Condos performing above the norm. The downside for Kailua Condos is that only two Condo/Town Home buildings are performed well for the month of June, Poinciana Manor and Gardenia Manor which are both Town Homes. I believe we would see if a different story if we had lower priced inventory to sell in Kailua.
The Median Sold Price which had gained significantly last year because buyers were still purchasing in the higher prices that Kailua Condos had to offer are now -23% off from a year ago. This is the same trend we are experiencing all over the Island. Buyers have been purchasing in the lowest price points all year. Why? The only guess I have is that it is primarily the first time home buyers who are purchasing right now along with investors who know a good thing when they see it.
Sales are not exactly setting records right now but demand is high as measured by the ACS %.
Days On Market is only slightly off which is not a good thing. Buyers are taking their time to purchase Kailua Condos. At least the market time is down as compared to the huge gain in D.O.M. last year.
New listings have not changed much this year after dropping dramatically last year. I think they should drop even further as it would be good for the market and most of the new listings are not the low priced ones buyers want.
This is very indicative of what buyers have been purchasing all year only because there is precious little inventory for sale in the low end.
As I mentioned before, it would be better if less new inventory came onto the market in Kailua as you can see, the inventory has only dropped off 6%. The same is true for Kailua Single Family Homes. I heard a comment the other day about ‘drinking Kool-Aid.’ I think the sellers of property in Kailua are drinking too much of their Kool-Aid as I believe they still think Kailua is so popular that they can still get high prices for their homes.
Between the Market Forces and the New Appraisal Guidelines…I don’t think so.
I do not think that we will see much sales close to this offering price.
See? This is counter productive. The buyers are looking for lower priced condos in Kailua. What are we giving them? Higher Priced Condos!
To recap the above: 53% of the inventory for sale 2nd. Quarter is priced no more than $499,999 and 78% of the same price range is in escrow with Just Accepted Offers. 42% of this lower price range in escrow is priced $300,000 to $399,999. Some buyers are purchasing in the $400,000’s but not in significant numbers.
Well at least buyers are willing to buy in the $400,000 to $499,000 range but I know the $300,000 to $399,999 range would show much higher % of Solds if there was the inventory available for sale. This is exactly no different than the condition that exists for the Kailua Single Family Homes as well.
Higher Priced Neighborhoods Suffer More? Higher Priced Neighborhoods Will Take Longer to Recover?
I think so.
I hope you have enjoyed this report. If you have any questions please call or email me anytime.
I wish you much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher, Broker in Charge, RE/MAX Honolulu
Ethics Complaints Review Committee Member
mikeg@hawaii.rr.com
808-384-9015
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