The above Map of Oahu depicts the % decreases in Average Sold Price for Single Family Homes and Condos around the Island.
The map above depicts the ACS % for Single Family Homes and Condos around the Island. ACS is a % of the total inventory available for sale. This indicates what kind of shape the inventory is in (too much, too little) and demand by buyers as indicated by Just Accepted Offers going into escrow.
(A.C.S.=Active, Continue to Show)
This map above depicts the ACS% ‘s for each of the neighborhoods in Hawaii Kai Single Family Homes. The current ACS% for all of Hawaii Kai Single Family Homes was at 24% for June which matches the ACS for all of Oahu’s Single Family Homes. You can see the Average For Sale and Average Sold Prices for each of the neighborhoods as well.
We can see that in this graph the decline occurred all throughout the years of ’07 and ’08. Now we have seen a solid gain in the first half of ’09.
This is important because this is the overriding theme that is occurring in almost every neighborhood on the Island. In short, I now believe we are reaching the bottom of the market. We are not quite there now as most of gains we are seeing are part of the natural market cycle that occurs this time of year. It will be more telling where we are in the market cycle after August. I am cautiously optimistic now that we may see the bottom of the market in the Fall of this year.
There is a ‘twist’ here though. I must say that this does not mean we are going to return to a corrected market…completely. I now believe that when we do hit the bottom we can generally say we have hit the bottom for the Oahu Market, but …for neighborhoods like Hawaii Kai and Kailua that have much of their inventory for sale in the $1,000,000+ price range, I do not think we will see a return to sales in this price range like they use to be any time in the near future.
The market right now is being driven by First Time Home Buyers and savvy investors. The Average Sold Prices for Hawaii Kai and Kailua Single Family homes are in the $700,000 to $899,000 range. This will continue for the foreseeable future.
In this case most of the downturn is occurring in ’09 due to lack of inventory for sale in the lower price ranges. This is consistent for Hawaii Kai and Kailua.
It is primarily the declining amount of New Listings that are driving down the inventory all across the Island along with a moderately strong demand for homes.
This is a natural occurrence in the market cycle for this time of year.
The Hawaii Kai market will go a long way towards being much healthier with even less inventory than what exits now. Unfortunately this time of year the high priced sellers normally come onto the market in hopes of getting out by selling their high end homes. Buyers shopping in these higher priced ranges usually do by a few homes.
Obviously there is not enough inventory for sale in the lower price ranges buyers are looking for.
I hope that you have enjoyed this report and if you have any questions please call or email me.
I wish you all much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher, Broker in Charge, RE/MAX Honolulu
Ethics Complaints Review Committee Member
mikeg@hawaii.rr.com 808-384-9015
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